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| Source: |
"The Pulse" with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg TV
According to renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, this earthquake could not have come at a worse time for the Japanese economy. (see last minute of the video above)
Already Japanese debt to GDP is by far the highest in the developed world. Indications are that the aftermath recovery could send this level even higher, potential to 210% according to FXSteet.com
The chart below shows already how Japanese companies have been affected by this earthquake and the resulting Tsunami
Production and businesses disrupted | |
|---|---|
| Company | Status |
Sony | Production halted at six plants |
Toyota Motors | Three group factories halted |
Canon | No impact reported |
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone | Restricted calls to some areas including Tokyo |
Nissan Motors | Halted production at four plants, two injuries |
Honda Motors | Halted two plants, one employee killed, about 30 injured |
Panasonic | Assessing damage, several workers with minor injuries |
Fuji Heavy Industries | Five plants halted |
Sapporo | Damage at Sendai and Chiba plants |
East Japan Railway | Halted train services in Tokyo area |
NTT DoCoMo | Mobile-phone service disruptions |
Insurers have also been hit hard today in European stock market trading. This adds to Insurers woes after a year when total payout from natural disasters have totalled $36bn.
The widening of CDS spreads in major European re-insurers the major concerns surrounding the potential size of their exposure to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
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| Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/cds-reinsurers-japan-earthquake-2011-3 |
For a detailed breakdown of the impact on the share prices of the re-insurers click the link below from the FT (11/03/2011)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0da4c73a-4bc9-11e0-9705-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GKj7aEqt
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| Source: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23931215-insurers-fear-hit-from-japan-earthquake.do "Strategy Session" with Becky Quick on CNBC According to Sean Egan of Egan-Jones Rating Co. says this disaster will make it increasingly difficult for Japan to deal with its sky-rocketing public debt levels, which he says is actually as high as 240%. |
The Wall Street Journal gives a preview of the week ahead in the Asian market for next week in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake.
The long term impact from the earthquake with depend on how the performance of the Yen. The repatriation of foreign assets by the Insurers to pay compensation will be an upward pressure on the Yen. The strength of the Japanese Yen will be the real danger to the Japanese economy.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, the quick notes coming out of the desks are saying the European Insurers have the most exposure as a region to the Japanese quakes. Since they need to pay compensation, they need to liquidate assets. Assuming they are long their domestic bonds, it would increase the European yields. Another factor in the existing problems of the European sovereigns.
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