World Clock

Friday, 25 February 2011

A Three Stage Crisis - Danial Fermon, SocGen Analyst



Heading towards a new economic cycle

As governments in developed economies struggle to find new ways to reduce their debt, emerging markets– particularly China– are more concerned about the value of the dollar, inflation imported by high commodity prices and internal political troubles. Thus we could now enter into a new economic cycle where the economic recovery will be short lived in developed countries. 

Fixing these global imbalances will take time, and eventually questions over a revaluation of the Yuan will come into play, as exports start increasing again. This could become more likely than ever as China will be paying high dollar premiums for its commodity imports.

Extracted from SocGen's Cross Asset Research Paper: 

No comments:

Post a Comment